Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.