From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”